New research is predicting the effects of major threats to CanadaSA国际影视传媒檚 boreal forest, in the short and long term and advising governments to get ready for change.
An article that was released SA国际影视传媒� though still being edited SA国际影视传媒� modelled the effects of fire, drought, mountain pine beetle and spruce budworm on boreal forest wood supplies, in light of expected changes in climate.
SA国际影视传媒淭hese are probably the main disturbances that the boreal forest in Canada is experiencing currently,SA国际影视传媒� said Yan Boulanger, a co-author of the research article.
The study area dipped into the NWT, below Great Slave Lake, but focused on areas where wood is harvested industrially, which does not happen on a large scale in the NWT.
Boulanger said that while the study didnSA国际影视传媒檛 look fully into the NWTSA国际影视传媒檚 data, the forest here will face the same threats SA国际影视传媒� SA国际影视传媒渆specially for fire, for drought.SA国际影视传媒�
SA国际影视传媒淲e have a lot of different studies that are projecting very sharp increases in forest fires in (the NWT), especially along the Mackenzie River,SA国际影视传媒� he said.
The study established a baseline period by looking at the data covering these disturbances between 1981 and 2010 and simulated the effects in these areas as far into the future as 2100.
SA国际影视传媒淚n our last simulation period covering 2071 to 2100,SA国际影视传媒� reads the report, SA国际影视传媒渘early all timber volumes in most of CanadaSA国际影视传媒檚 forest regions could be at risk of being affected by at least one of the four natural disturbances considered in our analysis, a six-fold increase relative to the baseline period.SA国际影视传媒�
The Department of Environment and Natural ResourcesSA国际影视传媒� latest forest health data shows a 108 per cent increase in spruce budworm population, as well as increases in other pest populations that werenSA国际影视传媒檛 looked at in BoulangerSA国际影视传媒檚 study, including forest tent caterpillar and willow blotch leafminer.
As well, 2017 was the fifth most active fire season in the past 30 years, with 262 fires burning 1,030,259 hectares of the 80-million-hectare boreal forest.
SA国际影视传媒淭he main point is that we have to adapt at some point and to consider that in the future there will be great changes in the natural disturbance regime,SA国际影视传媒� said Boulanger, citing risks both from the perspectives of industry and ecology.
SA国际影视传媒淎daptation is, of course, key in this process and there could be some ways to at some point mitigate those impacts.
SA国际影视传媒淔or fires, there could be some management that could be done to favour more deciduous trees instead of conifers trees because they are less flammable. That's one example. But at some point, considering those changes upfront is a much better idea than considering them after the disturbance that occurred.SA国际影视传媒�
