America prides itself as being the guardian of the worldSA国际影视传媒檚 rules-based order, and roundly criticizes both Russia and China for working outside these rules when in fact, Washington has done all it can in recent years to blackball, marginalize and isolate both Russia and China from the very world system it claims to be defending. The resulting alignment of interests and policies between Moscow and Beijing, and the intensifying perception of a menacing Russia-China axis that threatens the democratic west, is in large part a self-fulfilling prophecy induced by the very strategic myopia that China hawks in AmericaSA国际影视传媒檚 generously Pentagon-subsidized research and professional military education communities SA国际影视传媒� whose collective efforts have only sown chaos in the peaceful Arctic SA国际影视传媒� have intentionally fostered.
AmericaSA国际影视传媒檚 increasing preoccupation (newly evolved to an outright paranoia) with Russia, China, and their increasing alignment in the Arctic (reflected in RussiaSA国际影视传媒檚 2023 updated foreign policy concept as part of MoscowSA国际影视传媒檚 Eurasian pivot, driven by the westSA国际影视传媒檚 crippling sanctions which essentially evicted Russia from the globalized world of economically integrated nations), has greatly accelerated since Moscow invaded Ukraine. RussiaSA国际影视传媒檚 embrace of China was, consequently, a defensive move to restore the economic ties that bound Russia to the West severed in the wake of its 2022 invasion of neighbouring Ukraine, perceived in the West as an unjust and unprovoked war of aggression while in the East and much of the Global South as a just war of sovereign restoration.
The Moscow-Beijing Arctic alignment has been in lockstep with the WestSA国际影视传媒檚 economic and diplomatic isolation of Russia, and the increasingly militarized efforts by America and its partners to sever trade links tying RussiaSA国际影视传媒檚 Arctic energy resources to European markets SA国际影视传媒� dramatically illustrated by the September 2022 sabotage, by means of an undersea explosive attack, of the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipelines majority-owned by Gazprom, at great risk to the marine ecosystems polluted by this presumably western attack.
It's been blamed by some on the United States, and by others on Ukraine, and curiously by yet others on Russia itself despite the illogic of such a view, part of a tightening noose to de-globalize Russia from the interconnected and interdependent world economy of the post-Cold War era that has forced Moscow to quickly pivot toward Eurasia to offset its sudden loss of access to western markets, and to leverage its more protected northeastern Arctic shipping lanes, after having invested heavily in its shorter and more easily accessible year-round sea lanes to the west, part of its robust energy integration with Europe after the Cold War central to German diplomatic and economic policy up until 2022.
While circumpolar unity and collaboration has defined American Arctic policy since the Cold War ended, RussiaSA国际影视传媒檚 military resurgence and increased military interventions in former Soviet territories have catalyzed an increasing wariness of Russia in the Arctic, evident in numerous Arctic policy and strategy updates since 2016, as discussed above.
Despite this new tilt in policy, the bones of American Arctic policy retain their collaborative spirit, albeit increasingly truncated as universal circumpolar cooperation yields to new strategic divisions between Russia and the West in the Arctic. Thus in its 2024 strategy update, the U.S. Department of Defence (DoD) articulates its Arctic defence interests through an increasingly alliance-centric lens, in the Arctic as follows:
The Arctic is a strategically important region for the United States. DoDSA国际影视传媒檚 foremost objective is to protect the security of the American people, including those that call the Arctic home. Vital for homeland defence, the North American Arctic region hosts aerospace warning, aerospace control, and maritime warning capabilities for the binational U.S.-Canada North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD).
The North American Arctic region is also integral to the execution of IndoPacific operations, as the northern flank for projecting military force from the U.S. homeland to that region. The accession of new NATO allies and the strengthening of the alliance opens strategic opportunities and supports critical objectives in the NSAR. The Arctic serves as an avenue for power projection to Europe and is vital to the defence of Atlantic sea lines of communication between North America and Europe. The Arctic includes multiple strategically significant maritime chokepoints. Reduction in sea ice due to climate change means chokepoints, such as the Bering Strait between Alaska and Russia and the Barents Sea north of Norway, are becoming more navigable and more economically and militarily significant.
ChinaSA国际影视传媒檚 Arctic interests and its growing collaboration, driven by the WestSA国际影视传媒檚 isolation of Russia since its 2022 Ukraine invasion, features prominently in DoDSA国际影视传媒檚 perception of the Arctic strategic environment. The aforementioned undersea attack on the Nord Stream pipelines, amidst western pressure on Germany to sever its energy ties to Russia, has accelerated the decoupling of the West from Russia and to quickly wean western states off their dependency on Russian oil and gas exports (a hallmark of the east-west economic integration that cemented the post-Cold War peace), forcing Moscow to pivot to Eurasia where it has found new markets for its energy resources, not just China but also two highly westernized and predominantly democratic Asian states in Singapore and India, which take a more balanced approach to east-west divisions in world politics that better align with the historical experience and diplomatic values of the Global South, opening new opportunities for Russia as western doors suddenly swing shut.
Curiously, China tops the list when it comes to DoDSA国际影视传媒檚 new priorities in the Arctic strategic environment, a noteworthy but in many ways illogical strategic prioritization of what can be considered the least salient of Arctic security threats.
According to the DoD, SA国际影视传媒淧RC (People's Republic of China) and Russian activities in the Arctic SA国际影视传媒� including their growing cooperation SA国际影视传媒� the enlargement of NATO, and the increasing effects of climate change herald a new, more dynamic Arctic security environment. These changes, as well as the growing cooperation between Russia and the PRC, have the potential to alter the ArcticSA国际影视传媒檚 stability and threat picture. They also present opportunities for DoD to enhance security in the region by deepening cooperation with Allies and partners.SA国际影视传媒�
Drilling further into this curious but reality-challenged prioritization of China at the top of DoDSA国际影视传媒檚 list, the updated strategy describes "PRC Activities in the ArcticSA国际影视传媒� as follows:
SA国际影视传媒淭he PRC includes the Arctic in its long-term planning and seeks to increase its influence and activities in the region. Though not an Arctic nation, the PRC is attempting to leverage changing dynamics in the Arctic to pursue greater influence and access, take advantage of Arctic resources, and play a larger role in regional governance. Not mentioned, no less relevant, is that ChinaSA国际影视传媒檚 Arctic policy resembles in many ways in form and substance that of its neighbours, particularly Japan, as does its Arctic capabilities which more closely resemble JapanSA国际影视传媒檚 than Russia, with whom it is equated here."
Moreover, also left out is the importance of strategic context. China has risen fast and high as a global power, seeking 'to pursue greater influence and access' all around the world as all great powers do. Implicitly, this echoes the views of many a China hawk who parochially believe China should not be permitted to pursue its global interests like all great powers do and has been accompanied by a parallel effort to marginalize Arctic indigenous peoples, muzzling their more logical arguments in favour of continued circumpolar unity and engagement across the re-emergent east-west fault line of world politics since the Ukraine War began (and as discussed in my previous columns.)
Indeed, China is not alone to be asserting its Arctic interests and ambitions. Not even close. Japan, Korea, Singapore and India are also increasingly active non-Arctic states with expanding Arctic interests and ambitions and these should not be perceived as threats to the Arctic or to the West, when in fact they are to the benefit of Arctic peoples, many of whom continue to live in poverty and face persistent gaps in health, nutrition and economic security with their fellow countrymen to the south, and who welcome increasing interest in developing their homelands after long histories of neglect and exploitation.
