A warmer winter could affect the migration pattern of ptarmigan in the city, according to an ecologist with the GNWT.

Brad Woodworth, a climate change adaptation ecologist with the Department of Environment and Climate Change, said that's because of a predicted climate change effect for migratory birds.

Though he could not speak on what will happen to ptarmigan this winter, he did note that they are a migratory bird and this winter has been warmer than usual.

"The changing temperatures may alter their migration patterns," he said.

For ptarmigan, a winter in Yellowknife is actually a warmer home away from home, which stretches as far north as Kugluktuk, Nunavut.

Woodworth explained the birds spend their summers breeding there and when it gets cold, they fly down to Yellowknife and if Yellowknife warms up earlier than usual, ptarmigan might be triggered to migrate back to their breeding grounds to soon.

Ptarmigan haven't yet done this during this winter season, but Woodworth said it's not an uncommon thing to happen and it's called a phaenological mismatch.

"Birds try to time their arrival to the breeding ground around the same time as insects and other foods are emerging in their peak abundance," he said. "That way, there's lots of food for them to lay their eggs and to feed their young. But with some of the warmer temperatures, like with climate change, there's becoming a bit of a mismatch where they may actually arrive too early to their breeding grounds."

If ptarmigan do head back too soon, Woodworth said that generally, there are three outcomes that could happen: if the birds have enough energy left, they fly back south and wait it out. Another possibility is to wait it out up north, which Woodworth said is not ideal. 

The last, and likely worst option, he said, is that some birds won't last in the harsh conditions and either die or fail to reproduce.

Woodworth also said the third option has ripple effects that can go all the way up the food chain as foxes and ravens eat ptarmigan and less ptarmigan could mean less food for those animals as well. 

But if any bird has to adapt to climate change, the ptarmigan are probably one of the more fortunate species, according to Bob Bromley, co-founder of Ecology North and self-described ptarmigan enthusiast.

"They're at least fortunate, compared to others," said Bromley. "Their habitats give them some flexibility to deal with the changes."

For now, an unseasonably warm winter won't be detrimental to ptarmigan, said Bromley, but in the long-term, it certainly could be. 

"It's a matter of degree," he said.

Bromley added that because the birds' habitat shifts north and south, it offers them some flexibility and can help accommodate their needs. Ptarmigan are also mostly vegetarian, which can put them at an advantage compared to other birds that mostly eat insects like warblers, citing that

The best thing people can do, Bromley said, is to look after their environment because ptarmigan are pretty good at looking after themselves and don't need to be concerned with a food shortage.

Bromley also takes part in the annual Christmas bird count. Although 2024's count hasn't yet been published, he said that there were about 350 ptarmigan in Yellowknife last year. 

That sample comes from a 15 km radius around downtown Yellowknife, he said.