March 14 will mark the end of Justin Trudeau's time leading the government as Governor General Mary Simon will swear Mark Carney in as the 24th Prime Minister of Canada.
The swearing in will begin at 11 a.m. ET (10 a.m. CT, 9 a.m. MT, 8 a.m. PT) Carney's cabinet will also be sworn-in at the ceremony.
Kwantlen Polytechnic University political scientist Gregory Millard told Black Press Media that while it is unusual for Canada to have a Prime Minister who does not have a seat in parliament, it isn't unprecedented.
"John Turner did the same thing in 1984. He won the Liberal leadership without a seat in either the senate or House of Commons and he almost immediately called an election. So it's not unprecedented, it's very, very rare," Millard explained. He went on to say the norm would be for someone in Carney's position to either seek a seat in a by-election or call a general election in the near future.
An election must be held before Oct. 20, 2025. When Trudeau announced his intention to resign he prorogued, or paused, parliament until March 24. Prior to his resignation announcement, every opposition party indicated they would move forward to vote no confidence in the minority Liberal government should parliament return.
Carney won the Liberal leadership on March 9 in a massive landslide earning 131,674 of the 151,899 votes cast by party members. Millard said that win puts the Liberals in a stronger position than they could have hoped for a few months ago.
"They've got a party where clearly, they're unified. Chrystia Freeland would be the obvious rival to Mark Carney, but she was blown out of the water by these results," he said. Millard added Freeland's leadership bid didn't attack or antagonize Carney, which he said helps with unity for the party. "I don't think this is a leader who has to worry about internal dissent, at least at face value."
Carney will need to secure himself a seat in the next general election whenever it is called. He was born in the Northwest Territories and grew up in Alberta.
"(He) could try running in Edmonton in Alberta, somewhere like that. That would make a statement that 'hey, I'm here to reach out to the west,'" Millard said. "If he runs in a heavy urban riding like Toronto, Vancouver, something like that, those are traditional Liberal hot beds so that sends a little more of a message that 'I'm a typical Liberal' but to be honest, I don't think it really makes much of a difference unless he takes a chance on an unsafe seat."
Millard said Carney represents a shift to the centre-right for the Liberal party. While Trudeau was a bit further to the party's left leaning ideological spectrum. But, he said, in this election ideology likely won't matter as much as who Canadians see as the best to stand up to Donald Trump and the United States.
"It has completely turned Canadian politics on its head," Millard said of Trump's tariff and annexation threats to Canada. "A few weeks ago, Pierre Poilievre was cruising to what looked like an absolutely smashing majority government. With shocking suddenness, the Liberals have surged back, according to polls, into a position that suggests they could win even a majority government."
He said the main question on Canadians' minds has changed from "who can lower the cost of living?" to "who can deal with Donald Trump?"
Both the Conservatives and NDP have been slow to react politically to the swap from Trudeau to Carney so far, Millard said. He described Poilievre as "having the rug pulled out from under him" as said his reaction to the change in leadership for the governing party has been to double-down on his messaging.
"I was personally somewhat surprised that he didn't pivot after winning the Conservative leadership to a more statesman-like positioning. Not sounding so hyper-partisan, not relying so much on attacks," Millard said. "He didn't go that route and it didn't hurt him, but I think it may hurt him in this campaign."
With the conflict Canada is facing from our neighbours to the south, Millard said people might not want a Prime Minister who is focused on partisanship.
"But he does still have a strong hand because he has been in the driver's seat for a couple of years," Millard said. With the unpopularity of Trudeau, Poilievre may have gained enough momentum to carry him to an electoral victory.
Millard said he's seeing people rallying to the two parties that have historically governed Canada in the moment of national crisis. But with Carney's move to the centre-right, Millard said the NDP has an opportunity to grow its support from left-leaning Canadians.
Where Carney may be most vulnerable is his lack of experience in electoral politics, Millard said.
"It helps you to have experience because when you're in an election you are basically running full tilt 24/7 for however long the campaign is. You're making decision after decision, people are asking you questions, you're having debates, you're doing all kinds of things," Millard said. "Having experience helps, as it does in all areas of life. If you've got experience then you're in a really demanding situation, you've got that to draw from."
While a lack of experience could harm Carney, it could also draw people in as he isn't a "typical politician." That's compared to Pierre Poilievre who has significant experience in politics and has been a member of parliament for 20 years.
When an election does inevitably take place, Elections Canada states the campaign period must be at least 37 days and no more than 51 days.