A new study published in the scientific journal Environmental Research Letters says the loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean could be prevented if the world gets serious about methane emissions right away.

Climate change is affecting the Arctic three times faster than other parts of the world, and one area of particular concern to climate scientists is Arctic sea ice. Since record keeping began in 1979, nearly 40 per cent of summer sea ice has vanished. Current projections suggest the Arctic Ocean could have ice-free summers as early as the next decade, becoming more frequent before becoming the SA国际影视传媒渘ew normalSA国际影视传媒� by 2100.

But if civilization achieves its goal of net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 and begins aggressively targeting methane emissions using available methods, there is an 80 per cent chance there could still be ice in the Arctic ocean by the next century, explains climate scientist Tianyi Sun.

SA国际影视传媒淲eSA国际影视传媒檙e considering the Arctic summer sea ice system as a whole thing,SA国际影视传媒� she said. SA国际影视传媒淭hinking of it either being there or not being there and looking at the statistical likelihood of whether weSA国际影视传媒檙e able to preserve that or not.SA国际影视传媒�

SA国际影视传媒淏ut the latest science shows the loss of Arctic summer sea ice is very much following the trajectory of the temperature change, so the more warming we can avoid, the more we can preserve. Every increment of a degree really matters.SA国际影视传媒�

The International community responds

At COP26, the most recent United Nations conference on climate change, over 100 countries pledged to reduce global methane emissions by 30 per cent below 2020 levels by 2030, but Sun said her research shows that wonSA国际影视传媒檛 be enough.

Methane is responsible for more than 25 per cent of current global warming and captures nearly 80 times more heat than carbon dioxide over a 20-year period. Atmospheric concentration of methane has increased by 17 per cent since 1983. Sun said her statistical analysis shows that if the current plan goes through, there is only a 50 per cent chance there will still be summers with Arctic sea ice by the next century.

Ice-free summers could in turn accelerate climate change, as the dark-coloured water absorbs light and heat, as opposed to the white ice, which reflects it. Sun said past research has found a single ice-free year would result in the same amount of warming as 25 years of 2019 greenhouse gas emission rates.

It would also wreak havoc on the local ecology, she added. Beluga whales and narwhals use sea ice as cover from predators like killer whales, which have been moving northwards. The ice is also vital hunting ground for polar bears. Exposure to larger waves for longer periods of time is eroding the coastline, and communities like Tuktoyaktuk could be completely underwater by 2050.

Sun added that pretty much all of the methane is coming from civilization. Beef production and landfills are both massive sources of global methane as well inefficiencies in the oil and gas industry.

The good news is that all of these sources can be fixed with technology currently available: For example, the oil and gas industry could reduce up to 75 per cent of its methane by sealing leaks in equipment in the production, processing and transportation process, and more than 40 per cent would be at no net cost because of the savings in efficiency and reduced loss of product. Much of the fixes are as simple of changing valves or welding leaks.

For the beef industry, methane-inhibiting additives as well as using a dry system to dispose of manure can be introduced into cattle feed to cut down on the gas that cows produce in their lifetime. And the classic three Rs, reduce, reuse and recycle, all still apply to reducing the waste deposited in landfills.

SA国际影视传媒淭hese are technically feasible solutions,SA国际影视传媒� said Sun. SA国际影视传媒淲e just havenSA国际影视传媒檛 done so in some cases. We just really need to start right now; ThereSA国际影视传媒檚 no reason to be waiting any [longer] in terms of methane emissions.SA国际影视传媒�

One question that has yet to be answered is the contribution of melting permafrost to emissions, though Sun said a recent study suggested the amount of methane released by permafrost thaw will be negligible compared to industrial practices, which produce 400 times the methane that permafrost is expected to.

However, Sun cautioned that scientists do not have a clear picture of how much greenhouse gas is actually trapped in the permafrost, which she said makes quick action all the more imperative.

Now that the study is out, Sun said the next steps would be for the diplomats to bring it to the United Nations for review, a process that could take some time.

SA国际影视传媒淥ur goal is to show there are tangible results to reduced methane,SA国际影视传媒� she said. SA国际影视传媒淚 really hope this serves as a strong talking point, because itSA国际影视传媒檚 really something that benefits us all.SA国际影视传媒�