EditorSA国际影视传媒檚 note: This is the second part of a three-part series from former Yellowknife resident Barry Zellen and his interviews with author Ed Struzik and former SA国际影视传媒 editor James Hrynyshyn about the forest fire season.
Former Inuvik Drum and News/North editor James Hrynyshyn, who resided in Yellowknife in the 1990s and who later published the Class-M blog on climate and environment, reflected on what had happened:
SA国际影视传媒淟ike most former Yellowknifers, I was surprised by the need for an evacuation. WeSA国际影视传媒檝e all been through aggressive fire seasons SA国际影视传媒� I was raised in Dryden, Ont., which suffered through a forest fire season in 1974 that was so bad it was featured in the worldSA国际影视传媒檚 first IMAX movie (North of Superior) SA国际影视传媒� and I remember camping one summer in the NWT when the smoke was sufficient to keep the mosquitos at bay enough to allow sleeping outside without a tent. But evacuating the whole city was certainly not expected by anyone, and even among those who study wildfires from a climatologistSA国际影视传媒檚 point of view, I doubt such an eventuality was on their radar.SA国际影视传媒�
While off many of our collective radars, Hrynyshyn presciently anticipated many of the dramatic consequences of a warming Arctic in the early 1990s, and recalls that wildfire risk has long been predicted by climate change scientists and policy experts.
SA国际影视传媒淭he increasing risk of wildfires has been incorporated into future climate change scenarios for decades now. When I started doing Al GoreSA国际影视传媒檚 climate change PowerPoints in 2007, several slides were devoted to fire threats; Australia, for example, has been plagued by some pretty disastrous wildfires in recent years. And even here in Western North Carolina, the city of Asheville (where Hrynyshyn now resides) saw smoky conditions a couple of years back due to unusual fire activitySA国际影视传媒� (and which he wrote about for NOAA).
Fortunately, as Hrynyshyn observed, the SA国际影视传媒渄estructive potentialSA国际影视传媒� of this yearSA国际影视传媒檚 fire threatening Yellowknife SA国际影视传媒渨as mitigated by the extraordinary suppression efforts that involved three 10-km-long fire breaks that were bulldozed through the forests around the city. If those hadnSA国际影视传媒檛 held, it is likely the destruction would have been enormous. In a way, I think that the success of those efforts is quite reassuring: if we can save a city as remote as Yellowknife, maybe we can save other communities, too.SA国际影视传媒�
An end to an urban Arctic?
On the other hand, Hrynyshyn reflects, SA国际影视传媒淚f the fires had breached the firebreaks around Yellowknife and the city had burned to the ground, I canSA国际影视传媒檛 see an economic case to rebuild. Sorry, but there isnSA国际影视传媒檛 a good argument to made for having 20,000 people living there. Not with the diamond mines winding down. And do the other 20,000 residents of the NWT really need a big(ish) city to administer their federal subsidies and health care? Doubt it.
SA国际影视传媒淚 donSA国际影视传媒檛 think people understand how close Yellowknife came to being permanently abandoned. So, while the pressure to maintain a presence in Las Vegas will be strong (if ultimately futile), I doubt we can make the same case for urban life in the Arctic. I hate to think of the politics involved in depopulating the entire territory SA国际影视传媒� and the Indigenous people who rely on some urban presence pose a very real political problem, but just how much can we afford to pay for the privilege?SA国际影视传媒�
Hrynyshyn notes that itSA国际影视传媒檚 always been energetically expensive to live in the NWT, but itSA国际影视传媒檚 going to increase even more.
Indeed, Hrynyshyn adds: SA国际影视传媒淭he truth is, settlements in the North havenSA国际影视传媒檛 grown considerably over the past century, at least not relative to the rest of the continent. CanadaSA国际影视传媒檚 population has doubled in the past 50 years to almost 40 million people. The NWT, however, has only grown at half that rate, and today is still only in the 40,000 range, and almost all of the increase has come in one city.SA国际影视传媒�
ThatSA国际影视传媒檚 why, he adds, SA国际影视传媒滻 donSA国际影视传媒檛 think encroachment is nearly as important a factor as it is further south, and certainly not as important a factor as the changes in climate parameters.SA国际影视传媒� Moreover, increasing wildfires are SA国际影视传媒渙nly one manifestation of anthropogenic climate change that is being felt in the Arctic. For example: what are chum salmon doing off the northern coast of Alaska?SA国际影视传媒�
Hrynyshyn recalls that when he started paying close attention as a journalist to climate change in the early 1990s, most predictions called for the Arctic to warm at twice the rate of the global average. SA国际影视传媒�
That turned out to be an underestimate by a factor of at least two,SA国际影视传媒� he recalls.
Nature Strikes Back
I asked both Hrynyshyn and author Ed Struzik if humanity is at war with nature, and if nature is now fighting back.
Struzik observed that SA国际影视传媒渢he force and advantage is with nature. You canSA国际影视传媒檛 heat up the pot, as we are doing in the south, and not expect things to boil over.SA国际影视传媒�
Hrynyshyn commented, SA国际影视传媒淚 donSA国际影视传媒檛 like to think of nature as SA国际影视传媒榝ighting backSA国际影视传媒� as that implies intent. But nature does seek an equilibrium. If we push too hard on some settings, it will try to adapt by fiddling with the settings in other elements of the global ecosystem. And some of those new settings will be hostile to civilization. For places like the Arctic, as well as many low-lying coastal regions like the U.S. east coast, and water-scarce deserts like Arizona and Nevada, that means it will become increasingly expensive to live.
SA国际影视传媒淚n Arizona and Nevada, I expect Scottsdale and Las Vegas to be untenable within 20 years. It will be just too expensive to haul water to the cities (if there is any water available, that is). In Florida, it will be too expensive to build sea walls against rising sea levels. And in the Arctic, it will be too expensive to rebuild after the inevitable fires that burn down more communities like Enterprise. The difference between Miami and Yellowknife, however, is that there are lot more people in the former.SA国际影视传媒�
