After last yearSA国际影视传媒檚 apocalyptic fires engulfed CanadaSA国际影视传媒檚 Northwest Territories and catalyzed the mass evacuation of not only the 20,000 residents of the territorial capital city of Yellowknife, but over a majority of the NWTSA国际影视传媒檚 population in excess of 45,000 residents, it had become abundantly clear that the long foreseen era of mass climate refugees had come to the Western Arctic.
Has the Arctic reached a tipping point of no return? We checked back in with our two Arctic climate experts with whom we spoke last year, prolific author and longtime Arctic correspondent for the Edmonton Journal newspaper, Ed Struzik, now a fellow at QueenSA国际影视传媒檚 UniversitySA国际影视传媒檚 Institute for Energy and Environmental Policy, and longtime Northern News Service journalist and editor, James Hrynyshyn, owner of Class M Communications.
With last yearSA国际影视传媒檚 unprecedented wildfires now in our rear-view mirror, we asked Struzik how the 2024 fire season compared.
SA国际影视传媒淭his year,SA国际影视传媒� he informed us, SA国际影视传媒渋s not nearly as bad as last year, but it is far from over as much of the NWT was put on notice of severe fire possibilities over the Labour Day weekend, which used to be cool and wet.SA国际影视传媒�
He noted that residents of Fort Good Hope were evacuated for three weeks early in the summer, and Deline came close to an evacuation in late August. Reminiscent of last year, he added that the NWTSA国际影视传媒檚 SA国际影视传媒渉ighways to the south were temporarily closed and smoke was everywhere. Compared to 10 or 20 years ago, this is a severe wildfire season,SA国际影视传媒� even if it was less severe than last yearSA国际影视传媒檚 conflagrations.
All said, the NWT fire map showed (as of Sept. 3, 2024) a total of 168 fires affecting an area of 1.58 million hectares, of which 90 fires were still active and 83 of these remained out of control, one was being held, and four were under control. Another 78 were declared out.
Facing future extreme wildfire seasons: SA国际影视传媒楶repare for more to comeSA国际影视传媒�
When asked if the NWT had applied lessons from last yearSA国际影视传媒檚 unprecedented fire season and mass evacuations, Struzik observed that the GNWT is SA国际影视传媒渨orking on that now, trying to figure out how to better coordinate and manage evacuations. Everyone acknowledges that firefighters need more people, more air power and more scientific tools to get on top of the situation.SA国际影视传媒�
A review of the GNWTSA国际影视传媒檚 response to the 2023 blazes released in August 2024, according to Yellowknife-based Cabin Radio SA国际影视传媒渇ound the territory needs more firefighters, more training, better coordination, and better fire modelling to face future extreme wildfire seasons,SA国际影视传媒� and that in 2023, it faced "challenges with understaffing, inadequate skills tracking and reliance on retired personnel who may not meet current fitness standards or be up to date with modern fire science.SA国际影视传媒�
Of the 568 firefighting experts flown up to the NWT last year were SA国际影视传媒渟even aircraft crew, nine equipment managers, 444 firefighters, 75 people in technical positions and 33 in general roles.SA国际影视传媒� Additionally, CanadaSA国际影视传媒檚 Armed Forces SA国际影视传媒渋nitially provided 124 personnel to the NWT, with 100 assigned to fire lines and 24 to support fire services,SA国际影视传媒� and as the fires intensified, this was scaled up to peak of 350 military personnel, along five military aircraft: two Hercules aircraft, two helicopters, and a Twin Otter.
Looking beyond the NWT, Struzik observed that British Columbia and Alberta SA国际影视传媒渃ontinued to be challenged by fire as does the NWT. ItSA国际影视传媒檚 pretty clear that the North American Arctic is burning bigger, hotter and more often as Siberia has been for some time.SA国际影视传媒�
Struzik pointed out that the SA国际影视传媒淪iberian situation is unique in that companies producing firefighting equipment have either left Russia or redirected their production to the war in Ukraine. ItSA国际影视传媒檚 hard to rely on Russian reports, but it seems that the government is becoming indifferent to increasing wildfire challenges.SA国际影视传媒�
In the picturesque Canadian Rockies, the resort town of Jasper, Alta., made worldwide headlines in July 2024 when it was engulfed and partly destroyed by wildfire SA国际影视传媒� with 358 of JasperSA国际影视传媒檚 1,113 structures consumed by the 39,000-hectare (151-square mile) fire; 25,000 residents were forced to evacuate; and the fire is still burning more than 40 days later, albeit presently being held. SA国际影视传媒淛asper, more than any other community in Canada, has been preparing for a fire. Still, they lost a third of the town. If Jasper can burn this big, what about other boreal communities that have done little to address the fire challenge?SA国际影视传媒�
The future of Arctic wildfires remains grim. As Struzik comments: SA国际影视传媒淓ach year brings new unexpected, unwelcome surprises. Prepare for more to come.SA国际影视传媒�
Preparing for a future Arctic aflame?
How we can prepare for a future Arctic aflame?
James Hrynyshyn offers a sobering assessment: SA国际影视传媒淭he spectre of catastrophic local manifestations of climate change should force governments at the both nation and local levels to evaluate whatSA国际影视传媒檚 worth saving, and what isnSA国际影视传媒檛.
"Any community that recent history and reasonable futures (based on sophisticated climate models) suggest could be flooded, burned to the ground, or otherwise rendered at least temporarily uninhabitable should be required to produce a contingency plan for the aftermath,SA国际影视传媒� says the longtime Northern News Service journalist and editor and owner of Class M Communications.
For Yellowknife, whose mass evacuation remains a recent and traumatic memory, Hrynyshyn says SA国际影视传媒渢hat would mean determining whether the territorial capital should be rebuilt or relocated, although none of the other communities south of the tree line in the NWT would likely present a more less-vulnerable profile when it comes to forest fires.SA国际影视传媒�
Asks Hrynyshyn: SA国际影视传媒淏ut how does the Canadian government justify spending the billions of dollars that would be required to rebuild the city should it be burned to a crisp?SA国际影视传媒�
He finds hope in the innovative, remote technologies that kept the economy running during the Covid-19 pandemic: SA国际影视传媒淭hanks to the internet (and Elon MuskSA国际影视传媒檚 Starlink network), the entire territory could be administered remotely, with only a skeleton crew of sorts living in the drastically scaled-back community that would remain. The gold mines are gone, the diamond rush is (almost?) over, and there are no new economic engines idling in the wings. In other words, other than as a traditional homeland for the Yellowknives Dene, and the relatively modest tourism industry, what justification is there for a substantial government-service presence?SA国际影视传媒�
Hrynyshyn anticipates that the Dene would oppose the de facto shuttering of the NWT capital city.
SA国际影视传媒淐ertainly, Dene would resist being relocated, and fair enough, as they were there long before the modern government came along," he reasons.
As a former resident of Yellowknife with many close professional and personal ties to the community, he has many fond memories from his years in the NWT.
SA国际影视传媒淚 donSA国际影视传媒檛 mean to pick on Yellowknife. Enterprise was pretty much destroyed in last yearSA国际影视传媒檚 fires. It is small enough that it might be politically viable to spend the money to rebuild, but again: why?SA国际影视传媒�
Hard questions as the Arctic faces hotter future
These same difficult questions are being asked elsewhere around the world as the realities of climate change and the spectre of increasingly uninhabitable homelands comes to fruition.
SA国际影视传媒淢any low-lying, micro-island nation states around the world are planning depopulation protocols and agreements with potential host countries," says Hrynyshyn. "Managed retreat from beachfront communities around the world is inevitable. The Outer Banks is a nice piece of North Carolina, but itSA国际影视传媒檚 basically one big sand bar that is extremely vulnerable to natural erosion and redistribution patterns, let alone rising sea levels that will wipe it off the map before weSA国际影视传媒檙e too far into the second century of this millennium SA国际影视传媒� sooner if weSA国际影视传媒檙e not lucky. Over in Africa, one of the biggest cities in the world, Lagos, is going to have to come up with a way of floating itself into the 22nd century. Again, at what cost?SA国际影视传媒�
Hrynyshyn observes that a SA国际影视传媒渓ot of attention is paid to where climate refugees can go. Estimates of their numbers by 2100 range from 100 million upwards of a billion. While it might be tempting to think about putting them in places that climate change will convert from uncomfortably cold but now largely empty to moderately manageable, it would make no sense to move them to places that, while attractive on the temperature scales, are at increased risk of burning down. That puts a lot of Canada, which is largely boreal forest, out of contention.SA国际影视传媒�
ItSA国际影视传媒檚 not just wildfires that challenge the ArcticSA国际影视传媒檚 future. ItSA国际影视传媒檚 also the economic devastation that follows.
SA国际影视传媒淭he same reasoning would have us rethink other places with obsolete (or soon-to-be-obsolete) economies," Hrynyshyn says. "My home town of Dryden, Ont., where 1,500 people used to work in the main driver of the economy SA国际影视传媒� a pulp and paper mill SA国际影视传媒� now has only 150 people working in the pulp mill (the paper plant was shut down decades ago), and itSA国际影视传媒檚 one of the last pulp mills left in northwestern Ontario.
"ItSA国际影视传媒檚 only a matter of time before the entire mill shutters, leaving the town in dire financial straits.SA国际影视传媒�
Such challenges also confront the Arctic.
SA国际影视传媒淟ike Yellowknife, it is a government administrative (and educational) hub for about 20,000 people, so there will be pressure to keep it going," Hrynyshyn continues. "But it is just as vulnerable to forest fires as Yellowknife. In fact, the hotel I used to work at made a lot of money each and every summer housing and feeding fire crews that responded to fires through the region. Sooner or later, Dryden will be at risk. I spent 18 years there, but ask to me to justify rebuilding it and I donSA国际影视传媒檛 think ISA国际影视传媒檇 be able to make a good case.SA国际影视传媒�
The same can be said for much of the fire-threatened Arctic. As Hrynyshyn puts it, SA国际影视传媒淎dapting to climate change isnSA国际影视传媒檛 just about how we produce energy, it's about where we live.SA国际影视传媒�
