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Household debt worrisome, says Bank of Canada president

The governor of the Bank of Canada spoke about Canada's high household debt on Tuesday during an event hosted by the Yellowknife Chamber of Commerce.

Stephen S. Poloz, the governor of the Bank of Canada, delivered a speech about rising household debt and its effect on the Canadian economy on Tuesday at the Explorer Hotel in Yellowknife.
Sidney Cohen/NNSL photo

Stephen S. Poloz said Canadian households owe more than $2 trillion, and mortgages account for about $1.5 trillion of this debt.

Household debt, which has been on the rise for about three decades, has been a SA国际影视传媒済rowing preoccupationSA国际影视传媒 for Canada's central bank for a number of years, said Poloz.

SA国际影视传媒淭hat is because high debt levels can make us vulnerable to negative events SA国际影视传媒 individuals and the entire economy.SA国际影视传媒

Poloz said high household debt also makes the economy more sensitive to the impacts of higher interest rates.

SA国际影视传媒淭he average Canadian owes about $1.70 for every dollar of income he or she earns per year, after taxes,SA国际影视传媒 he said.

Poloz said this ratio breaks the Canadian record.

SA国际影视传媒淲e know that a portion of Canadian households are carrying large debts, and the concern will become larger for them as interest rates rise,SA国际影视传媒 he said.

However, added Poloz, SA国际影视传媒渢he economic progress we have seen makes us more confident that higher interest rates will be warranted over time.SA国际影视传媒

The current interest rate is still relatively low at 1.25 per cent.

Poloz said the Bank of Canada aims to eventually bring the interest rate up to a place where it is considered SA国际影视传媒渘eutralSA国际影视传媒: where it will SA国际影视传媒渘either stimulate nor cool the economy.SA国际影视传媒

The national bank's current estimate for Canada's neutral rate is between 2.5 and 3.5 per cent.

Lower interest rates have made it possible for buyers to purchase more expensive homes, said Poloz, and Canadians are increasingly relying on mortgages.

SA国际影视传媒淎spiring to own a home is part of our culture,SA国际影视传媒 he said.

However, the desire to own a home combined with the high house prices is a recipe for higher levels of debt.

Zoocasa's 2018 Housing Trends survey reports that 84 per cent of millennials consider home ownership an important milestone despite high housing prices and the likelihood of rising interest rates.

When he was a prospective homeowner in the early 80s, said Poloz, he too wondered if he would ever be able to afford a home, because interest rates were so high at the time.

SA国际影视传媒淚n the end it turned out fine,SA国际影视传媒 he said during a press conference following his speech.

SA国际影视传媒淲ith our eye on the long term, we should expect the same here.SA国际影视传媒

Poloz said it's important not to forget that economies are still dealing with the traumas of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2014 collapse in oil prices.

SA国际影视传媒淭hose have given rise to really significant adjustments, long-term adjustments in our economy, and it's been a struggle for a large share of young folks to break into the system,SA国际影视传媒 he said.

Still, the Poloz is confident that the economic climate, particularly for young people, is improving.

Though the governor of the Bank of Canada does not typically zoom in on provinces and territories, or examine the distinctions between them, Poloz was able to speak in broad terms about the future of the Northwest Territories.

This week the Conference Board of Canada called the territory's economic outlook SA国际影视传媒済rimSA国际影视传媒 with the passing of peak diamond production last year and the looming closure of the three operating diamond mines by 2035.

Poloz is more optimistic about NWT's economic future.

He said mining is a cyclical sector that relies on SA国际影视传媒渂ig, once-in-a-while decisionsSA国际影视传媒 about investments, and there could be companies exploring or contemplating investments right now that are not on the Conference Board of Canada's radar.

In an interview with Yellowknifer, Poloz said the technology for analyzing geology is constantly improving and SA国际影视传媒渃hances are, we're going to find something more, something else worth exploiting.SA国际影视传媒

Poloz also said the economic benefits of tourism in the North should not be underestimated, especially tourism driven by retirees.

The baby boomers are entering retirement, he said, and many are keen on travel.

SA国际影视传媒淭hey're always planning their next trip somewhere, and they spend meaningful amounts of time out in Canada and the world,SA国际影视传媒 said Poloz.

He called the trend SA国际影视传媒渞etirement tourism.SA国际影视传媒

SA国际影视传媒淭hat's a really important market,SA国际影视传媒 he said.

Poloz's visit to NWT was the first by a Bank of Canada governor since the previous governor, Mark Carney, made a trip to Yellowknife in 2009.





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