A warming climate may mean more snowstorms and rainstorms with droughts in between in the Inuvik region, according to John Pomeroy, co-author of a new research article on the subject.

SA国际影视传媒淭hereSA国际影视传媒檚 more snow but itSA国际影视传媒檚 warming, so you get a deeper snowpack and it will melt much faster and much earlier than it does now,SA国际影视传媒� said Pomeroy.

This would lead to flooding as stream flows, according to the research teamSA国际影视传媒檚 models, will double as the snow melts.

Pomeroy said this threatens infrastructure in the area, such as roads like the Dempster Highway.

SA国际影视传媒�Havikpak Creek crosses the Dempster Highway, (which has) already been subject to many wash-outs and this could be worse,SA国际影视传媒� he said.

The study also predicted more rain, which will come to the region first.

SA国际影视传媒�The storms are more intense unfortunately,SA国际影视传媒� he said. SA国际影视传媒淭hen the periods between the storms are longer so we can expect droughts that are more intense, forest fire seasons that are worse, longer summers, but then deeper, snowier winters with more rapid melts.SA国际影视传媒�

The research paper, published in the American Meteorological SocietySA国际影视传媒檚 Journal of Hydrometeorology and co-authored by Pomeroy and Sebastian A. Krogh, looks at the impacts of climate change and increased vegetation where the tundra meets the treeline in the Beaufort Delta.

Pomeroy said the technology used in the study to model weather over the rest of the current century is groundbreaking.

SA国际影视传媒�We used the weather model grid, which is ... able to pick up thunderstorms and actually predict future weather as opposed to future climate SA国际影视传媒� with high resolution,SA国际影视传媒� said Pomeroy.

His team ran the model on Inuvik over the years 2000 to 2015SA国际影视传媒攂ased on data previous to those yearsSA国际影视传媒攁s a test run and found it to have reasonably accurate predictions, lining up with the townSA国际影视传媒檚 actual weather in ways that SA国际影视传媒渨erenSA国际影视传媒檛 far off.SA国际影视传媒�

This has given him confidence in the systemSA国际影视传媒檚 predictions of weather for the region.

SA国际影视传媒�It will be a very, very different place and we have to prepare for that and make sure that the communities and the highways have the budgets to keep defending their infrastructure as these changes occur,SA国际影视传媒� said Pomeroy, because they will occur, with extreme events.

SA国际影视传媒�Some of the stream flows we predicted showed streams going dry in August in certain years, which is not the case right now, but then also much higher floods in peak flows in the spring.SA国际影视传媒�

In addition to weather modelling, the study considers snow accumulation and melt, the effects of forest and shrubbery in dispersing snow, evaporation of the precipitation, water melting from the surface on sunny days, and the effects of water seeping into frozen and unfrozen soils, and the routes of groundwater and streams.

Another aspect of the survey looks at permafrost. With all this new water, permafrost will lessen as the layer of ground that thaws and freezes each year grows deeper.

This has a large effect on infrastructure as well, said Pomeroy SA国际影视传媒� effects that have already been seen in Inuvik, he said.

The Town of Inuvik has had to demolish buildings because the shifting ground has made them hazardous.

News/North did not hear back from senior administrative officer Grant Hood by press time for an update on that situation.

Pomeroy said that, in addition to being prepared for infrastructure problems, he hopes people come away from his studySA国际影视传媒檚 results with a renewed vigour to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and fend off the worst of climate change.

SA国际影视传媒�This is what happens if we carry on as is,SA国际影视传媒� he said. SA国际影视传媒淚t's not necessarily what's going to happen, but we have to ensure that we make those changes.SA国际影视传媒�