Donald Trump is known for his often outlandish rhetoric. The president-elect of the United States regularly makes public statements that are exaggerations, or vows to take action but fails to do so, which is not necessarily bad.

Consider an example of when heSA国际影视传媒檚 backed up his rhetoric with action. In April 2017, Trump said that other nations were SA国际影视传媒渄umping vast amounts of steel all over the United States, which essentially is killing our steelworkers and steel companies.SA国际影视传媒�

While this statement SA国际影视传媒� and several others Trump when president the first time SA国际影视传媒� appeared to be an exaggeration, it wasnSA国际影视传媒檛 empty rhetoric.

In March 2018, the Trump administration imposed a short-lived 25 per cent tariff on steel imports from Canada and other countries. The administration stated these imports threatened American SA国际影视传媒渘ational security.SA国际影视传媒� Again, this accusation seemed unfounded but likely served to stir up fear and justify TrumpSA国际影视传媒檚 actions.

In fact, the government of Canada called this framing SA国际影视传媒渋nconceivable and completely unacceptable,SA国际影视传媒� while Prime Minister Justin Trudeau described it as SA国际影视传媒渋nsultingSA国际影视传媒� to Canada.

In response, Canada imposed a 25 per cent retaliatory tariff on American steel and everyday items, including lawnmowers, washing machines and whisky.

Harsh words on Canadian steel

The Trump administrationSA国际影视传媒檚 rhetoric on Canadian steel was largely inexplicable. But it has provided a hint of what might lie ahead in a second Trump presidency based on his campaign threats to impose tariffs on all imports in an apparent attempt to boost American manufacturing.

Canada is the largest buyer of American steel amid the long-standing trade partnership between both countries.

So by imposing a tariff on Canadian steel and igniting a reciprocal Canadian tariff the next day, TrumpSA国际影视传媒檚 decision seemed economically unwise. His administration lifted the tariffs a year later, although imposed smaller tariffs again in 2020.

The National Technology and Industrial Base SA国际影视传媒� consisting of people and organizations engaged in national security among key western nations, including Canada and the United States SA国际影视传媒� recognizes Canada as one of the five ally countries in terms of American defence. Accusing Canadian steel of representing a threat to national security was therefore questionable SA国际影视传媒� and an example of TrumpSA国际影视传媒檚 use of sometimes baseless rhetoric.

This tariff-truce cycle wasnSA国际影视传媒檛 just a one-off occurrence under Trump, incidentally SA国际影视传媒� it played out six times before the 2018-2019 steel tariffs in various industries and as recently as August 2024 under President Joe BidenSA国际影视传媒檚 administration.

However, TrumpSA国际影视传媒檚 rhetoric on Canadian steel seven years ago SA国际影视传媒� and his more recent public remarks on broader tariffs SA国际影视传媒� is largely unprecedented, and is a vivid illustration of political theatre. Trump makes bold statements and promises, and he may or may not ultimately act on them.

But even though his actions against political adversaries may be long-lasting and strategic, his first presidency suggests his actions and words against Canada will probably be short-lived and tactical.

How Canada can prepare

Will Trump make similar statements against Canada in his second administration? ItSA国际影视传媒檚 almost certain he will.

Trump said during the campaign that Canada had a SA国际影视传媒渓arge faucet,SA国际影视传媒� and claimed falsely that if turned on, it could divert water thatSA国际影视传媒檚 SA国际影视传媒渁imlesslySA国际影视传媒� being poured into the Pacific.

How should Canada prepare?

Ideally, leaders talk to each other and resolve disagreements in an effort to avoid trade wars that hurt both countries. But that kind of engagement is far from guaranteed in another Trump administration.

TrumpSA国际影视传媒檚 repeated use of rhetoric as political theatre means that most of his counterparts in other countries, including Trudeau, now recognize that retaliating with countermeasures, trying to be muted in their own rhetoric and hoping for a truce a few months later is the best way to handle him.

TrumpSA国际影视传媒檚 past comments on Trudeau have varied from SA国际影视传媒渘ice guySA国际影视传媒� to SA国际影视传媒渄ishonestSA国际影视传媒� and SA国际影视传媒渢wo-faced.SA国际影视传媒�

In response, TrudeauSA国际影视传媒檚 comments on Trump have varied from neutral to negative in a private conversation with other world leaders that was caught on camera.

While TrumpSA国际影视传媒檚 rhetoric is now familiar, the Canada-U.S. relationship will unfold differently in a second Trump presidency. The president-elect takes power in January 2025, while Trudeau will seek re-election in October 2025 or earlier, and polls are suggesting the Liberals will lose to the Conservatives.

Given Pierre PoilievreSA国际影视传媒檚 own penchant for overly dramatic rhetoric, the potential relationship between the Conservative leader and Trump could result in super-charged political theatre.

WhoeverSA国际影视传媒檚 governing Canada over the next four years must prepare for how to respond to SA国际影视传媒� and preferably, pre-empt SA国际影视传媒� TrumpSA国际影视传媒檚 rhetoric and ensuing actions in a way that preserves and promotes Canadian interests.

By Vivek Astvansh, Associate Professor of Quantitative Marketing and Analytics, McGill University. This article was originally published on The Conversation, an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts. Disclosure information is available on the original site.